Canada's Population Growth Hits Post-War Low as Immigration Policy Adjustments Accelerate Workforce Aging
Population Growth Sharply Decelerates to Historic Lows
As of July 1, 2025, Canada's total population reached 41,651,653, an increase of only 47,098 people from the previous quarter. This growth rate represents the lowest second-quarter increase since the 2020 COVID-19 border restrictions.
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- Q2 2025: 47,098 people
- Q2 2024: Over 272,000 people
- Q2 2023: 321,000 people
Over the past 12 months (ending July 1, 2025), Canada's population growth rate was 0.9% (389,324 people), a sharp decline compared to the 3.0% growth rate from July 2023 to July 2024.
International Migration Contribution Significantly Declines
International migration remains the primary driver of Canada's population growth, but its contribution ratio is shrinking:
Q2 2025 Migration Data:
- International migration contribution: 33,694 people (71.5% of total growth)
- Natural increase contribution: 13,404 people (births minus deaths)
- Comparison to Q2 2024: International migration contributed 95.3%
Temporary Resident Numbers Drop Dramatically
Non-Permanent Resident (NPR) Changes:
- April to July 2025: Net loss of 58,719 people, the second-largest quarterly decline on record
- NPR peak total: 3.15 million in October 2024
- Current NPR total: 3.02 million, representing 7.3% of total population
Specific Reduction Categories:
- Study permit holders: Decreased by 32,025
- Work permit holders: Decreased by 19,637
- Holders of both study and work permits: Decreased by 19,072
- Asylum claimants and protected persons: Increased by nearly 18,000
This trend directly reflects the federal government's temporary resident reduction policies announced in 2024, particularly restrictions targeting international students.
Population Aging Trends Accelerate Again
Age Structure Changes:
- Median age: Rose from 40.3 to 40.6 years (July 2024 to July 2025)
- Average age: Rose from 41.6 to 41.8 years
- Population 65+: 19.5% of total population, reaching 8.1 million, with 3.4% annual growth
- Children aged 0-14: Remained at 6.26 million with no significant growth
Labor Force Population Under Increased Pressure:
- Working-age population (15-64) growth rate: Only 0.4%
- Previous year same period growth rate: 3.2%
- Primary cause: Sharp reduction in young non-permanent residents (especially international students)
Provincial Population Growth Shows Significant Disparities
Fastest Growing Provinces:
- Prince Edward Island: +0.8%
- Alberta: +0.4% (12 consecutive quarters attracting interprovincial migration)
Population Decline Regions:
- British Columbia: Decreased by 2,154 people
- Permanent immigrant inflow: Over 12,000 people
- Non-permanent resident outflow: Nearly 14,700 people
- Net emigration: Over 2,600 people
Interprovincial Migration Patterns:
- Ontario: Net outflow for 15 consecutive quarters, losing 6,154 residents in Q2
- Primary destination provinces: Alberta, British Columbia, Quebec
Newfoundland and Labrador Sets Historic Record
Newfoundland and Labrador became Canada's first province where more than 25% of the population (25.2%) is aged 65 or older, highlighting regional disparities in national population aging.
National Age Structure Comparison:
- Youngest region: Nunavut
- Median age: 27.1 years
- Population 65+ ratio: 5.2%
- National average: 19.5% of population 65+
Future Outlook: Escalating Labor Shortage Risks
Key Challenges:
- Low fertility rates
- Extended life expectancy
- Declining proportion of young new immigrants
- Continued retirement of baby boom generation
Policy Impact Analysis:
- Current temporary immigration decline demonstrates rapid population structure balance changes
- Natural increase (births minus deaths) contributes weakly to total growth
- Immigration (permanent and temporary) remains the most important tool supporting labor supply
Prospect Assessment:
Although Canada commits to receiving over 100,000 permanent residents per quarter, this may be insufficient to offset the combined effects of shrinking young population and rising retirement numbers. Rebuilding temporary immigration channels or shifting focus toward younger permanent residents could be key measures to reverse the current labor force contraction.
Data Source: Statistics Canada, released September 24, 2025
Canada's Population Growth Hits Post-War Low as Immigration Policy Adjustments Accelerate Workforce Aging
Latest data released by Statistics Canada on September 24, 2025, reveals that Canada is facing a major demographic turning point. Affected by federal government immigration policy adjustments, Canada's population growth rate in Q2 2025 was only 0.1%, marking the lowest post-war level (excluding pandemic period). Meanwhile, population aging trends are accelerating again, posing severe challenges to the national labor market and economic development.
09/26/2025
IRCC Releases August Data: Backlog Increases, Study Permit Processing Times Extended
According to the latest data released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), as of August 31, 2025, the department's application backlog reached 958,850 cases, continuing to rise from July's 901,700 cases, representing a 6.33% increase. This marks the fourth consecutive month of worsening backlog issues for IRCC, with study permit applications experiencing particularly severe delays, surging from 23% in July to 32% in August.
09/25/2025
Prince Edward Island Issues 129 Invitations with Focus on Local Employment and University Graduates
Prince Edward Island issued 129 invitations through its Labour Impact and Express Entry categories in its latest Provincial Nominee Program draw held on September 19, 2025. The province continues to focus on occupational sectors with significant economic impact, prioritizing applicants employed locally and international graduates from provincial institutions.
09/24/2025
Manitoba Issues Provincial Nomination Invitations to Over 900 Skilled Workers
Manitoba's immigration department issued application invitations to 911 skilled worker candidates this week through the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP). This draw covered both the Skilled Worker in Manitoba stream and the Skilled Worker Overseas stream, with candidates primarily qualifying through strategic recruitment initiatives and temporary work permit facilitation policies. Notably, over 90% of the invitations were issued to applicants who benefited from the federal temporary work permit policy.
09/23/2025
H1-B Visa Fees Surge Dramatically in the US, Canada Work Permits Emerge as Popular Alternative
With US H1-B visa application fees skyrocketing to $100,000, an increasing number of international tech professionals are turning their attention to Canada. This article provides a detailed analysis of Canada's main work permit and immigration pathways, offering comprehensive guidance for professionals seeking to develop their careers in North America.
09/22/2025
Alberta Issues Over 1,300 Provincial Nomination Invitations in Early September Draws
In early September 2025, the Alberta Advantage Immigration Program (AAIP) conducted a series of seven immigration draws, issuing a total of 1,376 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) to candidates. These draws primarily targeted applicants in the Alberta Express Entry stream and the Dedicated Healthcare Pathway, focusing on inviting candidates with Alberta job offers who can help fill labor gaps in high-demand sectors. The number of invitations issued in the first half of September alone has already surpassed that of any other single month in 2025, indicating that the province is accelerating its efforts to meet its economic development needs.
09/20/2025
Canada Holds First Express Entry Draw of 2025 for Trade Occupations, CRS Score Rises Sharply
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) conducted its first Express Entry draw of the year for trade occupations on September 18, 2025. A total of 1,250 candidates received an Invitation to Apply (ITA). However, the minimum Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score soared to 505, significantly higher than the previous draw for this category. The primary reason for the score increase is the long interval between draws, which led to an accumulation of high-scoring candidates. Additionally, internal documents suggest IRCC plans to issue more invitations to trade candidates in the second half of the year.
09/19/2025
Canada Conducts Express Entry Draw for Education Professionals, CRS Cut-off Score Drops to 462
On September 17, 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) held the second-ever Express Entry draw targeting candidates in the "education" category. A total of 2,500 Invitations to Apply (ITA) were issued to candidates with a minimum Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score of 462. Compared to the inaugural draw for this category, this round featured a significantly lower cut-off score and a larger number of invitations, reflecting the flexibility and strategic focus of Canada's immigration policy on attracting professionals from specific fields.
09/18/2025
Alberta's Provincial Nomination Allocation for 2025 Raised to 6,403
The Canadian federal government has recently approved an increase to the 2025 allocation for the Alberta Advantage Immigration Program (AAIP). The province's nomination spots have been raised from the previously set 4,875 to 6,403, a net increase of 1,528. This adjustment comes after the federal government had drastically reduced overall PNP immigration targets in response to pressures such as housing shortages. The increased allocation is viewed as a positive response to lobbying by provinces to meet local labour demands, and it is anticipated that the new spots will be prioritized to support key industries and regional economic development. In addition to Alberta, several other Canadian provinces and territories have also received increased allocations.
09/17/2025
Canada Holds New Express Entry Draw, Prioritizing Provincial Nominee Program Candidates
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) held its latest Express Entry draw on September 15, 2025. This draw specifically targeted candidates in the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP), issuing 228 Invitations to Apply (ITAs). The minimum Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score required was 746. Data shows that the PNP continues to be the dominant category for Express Entry draws in 2025.
09/16/2025
# Can spouse of international students work in Canada?# How is the CRS Score Calculated?# What is Express Entry?# How to become a licensed immigration consultant in Canada?# Why Need a Professional, Licensed Immigration Consultant for Immigrating to Canada?# How to verify if my immigration consultant is licensed?# Difference between licensed and unlicensed immigration consultants?# Is it mandatory to be licensed to practice immigration consulting in Canada?