Canada's Population Growth Hits Post-War Low as Immigration Policy Adjustments Accelerate Workforce Aging
Population Growth Sharply Decelerates to Historic Lows
As of July 1, 2025, Canada's total population reached 41,651,653, an increase of only 47,098 people from the previous quarter. This growth rate represents the lowest second-quarter increase since the 2020 COVID-19 border restrictions.
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- Q2 2025: 47,098 people
- Q2 2024: Over 272,000 people
- Q2 2023: 321,000 people
Over the past 12 months (ending July 1, 2025), Canada's population growth rate was 0.9% (389,324 people), a sharp decline compared to the 3.0% growth rate from July 2023 to July 2024.
International Migration Contribution Significantly Declines
International migration remains the primary driver of Canada's population growth, but its contribution ratio is shrinking:
Q2 2025 Migration Data:
- International migration contribution: 33,694 people (71.5% of total growth)
- Natural increase contribution: 13,404 people (births minus deaths)
- Comparison to Q2 2024: International migration contributed 95.3%
Temporary Resident Numbers Drop Dramatically
Non-Permanent Resident (NPR) Changes:
- April to July 2025: Net loss of 58,719 people, the second-largest quarterly decline on record
- NPR peak total: 3.15 million in October 2024
- Current NPR total: 3.02 million, representing 7.3% of total population
Specific Reduction Categories:
- Study permit holders: Decreased by 32,025
- Work permit holders: Decreased by 19,637
- Holders of both study and work permits: Decreased by 19,072
- Asylum claimants and protected persons: Increased by nearly 18,000
This trend directly reflects the federal government's temporary resident reduction policies announced in 2024, particularly restrictions targeting international students.
Population Aging Trends Accelerate Again
Age Structure Changes:
- Median age: Rose from 40.3 to 40.6 years (July 2024 to July 2025)
- Average age: Rose from 41.6 to 41.8 years
- Population 65+: 19.5% of total population, reaching 8.1 million, with 3.4% annual growth
- Children aged 0-14: Remained at 6.26 million with no significant growth
Labor Force Population Under Increased Pressure:
- Working-age population (15-64) growth rate: Only 0.4%
- Previous year same period growth rate: 3.2%
- Primary cause: Sharp reduction in young non-permanent residents (especially international students)
Provincial Population Growth Shows Significant Disparities
Fastest Growing Provinces:
- Prince Edward Island: +0.8%
- Alberta: +0.4% (12 consecutive quarters attracting interprovincial migration)
Population Decline Regions:
- British Columbia: Decreased by 2,154 people
- Permanent immigrant inflow: Over 12,000 people
- Non-permanent resident outflow: Nearly 14,700 people
- Net emigration: Over 2,600 people
Interprovincial Migration Patterns:
- Ontario: Net outflow for 15 consecutive quarters, losing 6,154 residents in Q2
- Primary destination provinces: Alberta, British Columbia, Quebec
Newfoundland and Labrador Sets Historic Record
Newfoundland and Labrador became Canada's first province where more than 25% of the population (25.2%) is aged 65 or older, highlighting regional disparities in national population aging.
National Age Structure Comparison:
- Youngest region: Nunavut
- Median age: 27.1 years
- Population 65+ ratio: 5.2%
- National average: 19.5% of population 65+
Future Outlook: Escalating Labor Shortage Risks
Key Challenges:
- Low fertility rates
- Extended life expectancy
- Declining proportion of young new immigrants
- Continued retirement of baby boom generation
Policy Impact Analysis:
- Current temporary immigration decline demonstrates rapid population structure balance changes
- Natural increase (births minus deaths) contributes weakly to total growth
- Immigration (permanent and temporary) remains the most important tool supporting labor supply
Prospect Assessment:
Although Canada commits to receiving over 100,000 permanent residents per quarter, this may be insufficient to offset the combined effects of shrinking young population and rising retirement numbers. Rebuilding temporary immigration channels or shifting focus toward younger permanent residents could be key measures to reverse the current labor force contraction.
Data Source: Statistics Canada, released September 24, 2025
Canada to Simplify Graduate Study Permit Process in 2026, Removing Provincial Attestation Requirement
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has announced that, effective January 1, 2026, international master’s and doctoral students will no longer need to provide a Provincial or Territorial Attestation Letter (PAL/TAL) when applying for a study permit. The policy aims to simplify the application process, maintain the two-week fast-track for doctoral students, and remove all limits on the number of eligible applicants. Qualified students may also include their family members in their applications. The change is expected to further strengthen Canada’s position as a global leader in higher education and research.
11/13/2025
IRCC holds largest Express Entry PNP-targeted draw in nearly six months
On November 10, 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) conducted the first Express Entry draw of the month, inviting 714 Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates to apply for permanent residence. The minimum Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score was 738, and candidates needed to have created their Express Entry profile before 2:12 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on February 22, 2025. This was the first draw since the release of the new Immigration Levels Plan and the largest PNP-targeted Express Entry draw since April 14, when 825 invitations were issued. Year-to-date, IRCC has issued 81,223 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) through Express Entry.
11/12/2025
Manitoba Holds First November Draw, Focusing on Strategic Recruitment Initiative Candidates
On November 6, 2025, the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP) held its first draw of the month, issuing invitations to apply for provincial nomination to nearly 50 skilled worker candidates. A unique feature of this draw was that all invited individuals had to have previously declared being invited by the MPNP under a Strategic Recruitment Initiative. This draw follows a period of fluctuation for Manitoba's immigration allocation. After the federal government significantly cut the province's quota early in 2025, successful lobbying led to a substantial recovery in October, bringing the annual total to 6,239 nominations. Combined with the federal government's newly released multi-year immigration levels plan, Manitoba's capacity to nominate immigrants is expected to expand further in the coming years.
11/11/2025
Northwest Territories Nominee Program adds a third intake window; eligibility changes in effect through year-end
The Northwest Territories (NWT) has announced a third application intake window for its Nominee Program (NTNP), running from November 10, 2025 at 9:00 a.m. to November 24, 2025. To complete the 2025 target of 300 nominations, the territory plans to process up to 103 additional eligible applications by year-end and has introduced temporary eligibility adjustments: removal of the work-permit expiry-date restriction, reinstatement of certain 2024 work-experience requirements, and elimination of employer submission caps tied to company size. Applications will be prioritized for candidates whose work permits expire within the next three months, followed by filing date order; if processing exceeds capacity or cannot be finalized by December 23, applications will be withdrawn, with the option to reapply in 2026.
11/10/2025
Quebec Announces Closure of Experience Program, Tightening Pathways to Permanent Residence
On November 6, 2025, the Quebec government announced that it will permanently close one of its most popular pathways to permanent residence—the Quebec Experience Program (Programme de l’expérience québécoise, PEQ)—which includes the Quebec Graduates Stream and the Temporary Foreign Workers Stream. Both streams will officially end on November 19, 2025. At the same time, three permanent immigration pilot programs will also conclude as scheduled on January 1, 2026. This means that, going forward, foreign workers and graduates seeking to obtain permanent residence in Quebec will only be able to apply through the Skilled Worker Selection Program (PSTQ).
11/08/2025
Canada to Increase Provincial Nominee Program Admissions by 66% in 2026, Strengthening Local Talent Attraction
According to Canada’s newly released 2026 Immigration Levels Plan, the federal government has set the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) permanent resident target at 91,500, a 66% increase from last year’s 55,000. This marks a shift toward expanding provincial immigration pathways, giving temporary residents and international graduates greater access to permanent residence (PR). Several provinces have already negotiated higher nomination allocations with the federal government to help address ongoing labor shortages.
11/07/2025
Canada Immigration Levels Plan 2026–2028 Q&A: Understanding the Impact, Priorities, and Opportunities
On November 4, 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) officially released the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, maintaining annual permanent resident targets at 380,000 for the next three years while gradually reducing the number of temporary residents—including international students and foreign workers. The plan aims to balance population growth with Canada’s housing, healthcare, and infrastructure capacity, while increasing the share of economic and francophone immigrants. This Q&A explains the plan’s key points, policy direction, and what it means for prospective applicants.
11/06/2025
Canada Announces 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan: Permanent Resident Targets Stabilized, Temporary Resident Numbers Tightened
On November 4, 2025, the Government of Canada officially released the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, setting an annual target of 380,000 permanent residents for each of the next three years. The plan aims to maintain steady immigration growth while tightening the inflow of temporary residents—including international students and foreign workers. Announced as part of the 2025 federal budget, the plan marks a policy shift from “expansion” to “stabilization,” emphasizing the balance between immigration growth and the country’s capacity in housing, healthcare, and infrastructure.
11/05/2025
Canada Updates Immigration Medical Exam Requirements for Temporary Residence Applicants — Four Countries Added, Six Removed
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has announced an update to the list of countries whose citizens must complete an Immigration Medical Exam (IME) when applying for temporary residence in Canada. Effective November 3, 2025, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, and Venezuela have been added to the list, while Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, Latvia, Lithuania, and Taiwan have been removed. Applicants from newly added countries will now need to complete an IME, whereas those from the removed regions will no longer be required to do so. The new rules apply to individuals who have lived in or traveled to these countries for six consecutive months within the year before their intended arrival in Canada.
11/04/2025
Manitoba PNP issues 29 invitations to skilled workers, focusing on candidates with special work permits
On October 31, 2025, Manitoba issued 29 Letters of Advice to Apply (LAAs) under the Skilled Worker Stream of the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP). This draw primarily targeted candidates already working in the province on facilitated work permits. Of the total invitations, 19 were issued under the Temporary Public Policy (TPP), while the rest were distributed among Francophone, regional, and employer-based recruitment initiatives.
11/03/2025
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